Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
