Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
